Primal Sneeze

I recently interviewed D. Chip Monke, Children’s Cartoon Industry analyst with Gartner.  Monke’s research confirms what many have suspected for some time now – dramatic changes are taking place and more is to come.

Given the current state of the global economy this is not unexpected.  The cartoon industry is not exempt. Indeed, nor are it’s clients.  A recent survey by our own ESRI shows that pocketmoney incomes are down 17% year on year and trips to the zoo have fallen to 2006 levels.

Falling employment has staunched the flow of funds into the pocketmoney coffers.  One four year old was of the opinion that no one gets paid for working – When mam gets me from school after work, she always says she has no money to bring me to the shop for sweets.

Speaking from Stamford, Connecticut, Monke of Garntner tells of some of the more subtle cost-cutting measures being taken by the cartoon industry.

Barney smiles 5.7% less today than he did in 2007.  Why? Industry chiefs may claim it is designed to reflect reality as part of their mission to educate children for life, the truth is that it is a cost reduction measure – drawing big stupid grins takes time and materials.

Monke has also noticed reduced levels of stock being carried by Kelly in her Sheetrock Hills hardware store.  Walt Disney spin the same we are reflecting reality story.  Children don’t notice this as Handy Manny’s lines are scripted such that he never needs request out of stock items.

I asked Monke if there would be further contraction.

Why, yes!  By the middle of the first quarter of 2010 I predict Kelly’s store will close for good.  Handy Manny will source materials on the Internet from China.  In Q-3 we will see layoffs with Turner and Stretch first to go.

But Monke believes even more is to come.  He speaks of mergers, acquisitions, rationalisations and consolidations.  Changes to date have only put off the inevitable, he says.  To return to profit and restore shareholder confidence far harsher measures will have to be taken.  There is no way to avoid this.

Monke cites leaks by industry insiders of a merger between Bob the Builder and SpongeBob SquarePants.  The new cartoon’s main character’s construction empire is no more.  He is old, frail and financially ruined.  Set in a state-run nursing home, SpongeBath Bob will air on our screens in mid-2010.

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